Part two: Inter-Agency Appeals
HRP
People in need
8.3 million
People targeted
5.4 million
Requirements (US$)
1.1 billion
Total population
211.4 million
Income level
Lower middle income
INFORM Severity Index
4.3 / High
Consecutive appeals
2014 - 2022
People reached (2021)
4.8 million

Analysis of the context, crisis and needs

Twelve years into the humanitarian crisis in north-east Nigeria’s Adamawa, Borno and Yobe States, the needs are as severe and large-scale as ever. The crisis continues unabated, and affected people’s living conditions are not improving; they still live with great unpredictability, privation far beyond chronic poverty, and daily threats to their health and safety. Crude mortality rates among people arriving from some inaccessible areas are at war-time levels. Food security has improved somewhat, and cautious optimism about the course of the conflict was generated by the ‘surrender’ or escape in mid-2021 of some thousands of ‘fighters’ from non-State armed groups (NSAGs), though the majority are women and children. However, as attacks by NSAGs continue at scale, peace or true stabilization across most of the conflict-affected zones is not yet in sight.

Protection needs are formidable, especially for women and girls, who still lack adequate protection and access to justice and services, and are at risk of violence, abduction, rape, gender-based violence, forced and child marriage, and other violations of their rights. Children are also at risk as unaccompanied and separated minors, and when formerly associated with armed groups, forced recruitment is a further risk.

The operating environment remains extremely volatile: in Borno State all the major supply routes are dangerous for civilians, humanitarian workers, cargo and assets. Security has improved incrementally in parts of Adamawa and Yobe States. Humanitarian hubs and aid organizations’ offices have suffered regular attacks in 2021. Conflict and insecurity continue to cut people off from their main means of livelihoods, agricultural lands. This causes major food insecurity in north-east Nigeria. Protection and livelihoods are linked: women’s and adolescents’ livelihoods tend to be the most fragile, and females are at greater risk of negative coping mechanisms, such as sex work for food or for other survival needs. Boys in desperation are more easily lured into NSAGs.

Humanitarian funding for Nigeria has been in steady decline since its peak in 2017. Therefore, the Humanitarian Country Team’s new two-year humanitarian strategy must make the most of limited resources and capacity. It will ensure this is done collectively – that humanitarian action in the north-east is more than the sum of its parts. The strategy’s coherence, improved targeting based on vulnerability, and prioritization aim to mitigate expected funding shortfalls.

Projected situation in 2022 and beyond

The comprehensive multi-sectoral needs assessment (MSNA) in mid-2021 projects a slight (5 per cent) decline in people in need in 2022 (8.1 million people), compared to a year ago (8.7 million). Needs are multisectoral and vary in severity across areas and among the three affected groups of internally displaced people (IDPs, who still number over 2 million people), returnees and host communities. The analysis shows 121,000 people in 10 local government areas (LGAs) in the most severe ‘catastrophic’ category.

Nigeria HRP

No entire LGA is classified as ‘catastrophic.’ However, 2.7 million people across 28 LGAs are in the ‘extreme’ (severity score 4) category. Fourteen LGAs have overall severity score 4, and 28 have severity score 3 (‘severe’). The Access Working Group deems four LGAs inaccessible due to insecurity.

Response priorities in 2022

To address the gravest threats to life, health and safety, humanitarian partners acting in concert will focus on IDP camp conditions, protection, communicable disease risk, extreme food insecurity and malnutrition, and inability to exercise livelihoods. In parallel, despite near certainty that the conflict and insecurity will continue, it is time to focus on the opportunities (albeit limited) to move some affected people progressively out of crisis.

This strategy is largely one of prioritization, in order to focus funding and implementation on life-saving actions and the most vulnerable people first. The prioritization process in north-east Nigeria focuses on those LGAs and people with multiple severe needs, as identified by the MSNA’s inter-sectoral composites of indicators. The sectors will collaborate on challenges that require concerted actions (e.g. communicable disease control). As a secondary priority, actions will address the critical causes of life-threatening conditions. Area-based, intersectoral approaches to coordination, planning, implementation and advocacy will deepen.

The third priority is helping people move out of crisis and extreme risk. IDP returns may be possible to the few areas secure enough to be safe for civilians and allow humanitarian and even development actors to create the conditions for return. Resettlement in safe third locations will be possible for some. Integration in communities around the displacement sites is likely to be a larger-scale option in the immediate term. Nexus action and opportunities are highly circumscribed: the rampant insecurity leaves little room for development initiatives, though Adamawa and Yobe States may offer more scope for such activities.

For the majority of people in need, with no feasible durable solution yet, progressing out of crisis consists of greater resilience, mainly in livelihoods – there is no reason why displaced people should remain unemployed and dependent for years amid Nigeria’s dynamic economy – and accessing the range of coping mechanisms and supportive services. Not all of these are amenable to humanitarian action, but programmes under this strategy will emphasize those that are.

Achievements and innovations

Humanitarian agencies consult the affected people about the humanitarian response. However, the questions that we ask affected people tend to be granular – which kind of assistance did they prefer, has there been any exploitation to report, etc. We rarely or never ask them how they see the crisis evolving, and how they think they might best endure and eventually overcome it. As part of the Nigeria Humanitarian Country Team’s development of its new two-year humanitarian strategy, partners are convening structured consultations with affected people to obtain and reflect in the eventual strategy, their view on how we might best help them to endure this crisis and, in the medium to long term, overcome it.

Further reading