Analysis of the context, crisis and needs

Chad continues to be afflicted by prolonged humanitarian crises due to growing insecurity in the country and in neighbouring countries, as well as socioeconomic, health and climate-related challenges in a context of political transition. The combined effects of conflict, health emergencies and climate change affected an estimated 5.5 million people, or one third of the population, in 2021.

In Lac Province, where armed groups operating in the Lake Chad basin are still active, the protection of civilians remains a major challenge and humanitarian access is often affected by the operations of armed actors. Due to insecurity, the number of forcibly displaced people in Chad has reached an unprecedented level, with over 1 million refugees, internally displaced persons (IDPs) and returnees. In Lac, more than 406,500 people, or 60 per cent of the province's population, are internally displaced. In addition, the country hosts over 528,000 refugees and asylum seekers, including 42,700 people who have arrived in 2021. These people, mostly from Sudan, the Central African Republic (CAR), Nigeria and Cameroon, depend primarily on humanitarian assistance. In addition, more than 100,000 Chadians returned to Chad from CAR and Lake Chad basin countries due to insecure social political environment. Expulsions of Chadian nationals from Libya to Chad’s Ennedi Ouest Province have continued, with 560 expulsions in 2021 and 1,100 last year.

In 2021, more than 1.8 million people have been affected by severe food insecurity (IPC phase 3 to 5 of the Cadre Harmonisé and 3.3 million people have been “under pressure” (phase 2 of the Cadre Harmonisé). The acute malnutrition level among children exceeds the emergency threshold of 10 per cent for global acute malnutrition (GAM) and 2 per cent for severe acute malnutrition (SAM). At the national level, the prevalence of GAM is 11 per cent and that of SAM is 2.1 per cent, according to the SMART survey results published in October 2021. The prevalence of acute malnutrition remains a concern in 16 of the country's 23 provinces. Malnutrition is exacerbated by the critical under-five mortality rate, which has reached two persons for every 10,000 inhabitants per day in two provinces. Acute malnutrition affects 1 million children under 5 years of age, including more than 270,000 children affected by SAM and 760,100 children affected by moderate acute malnutrition. This is due to several factors, including food insecurity, childhood diseases, conflicts, prolonged displacements and poor access to basic services such as health care, potable water and education.

In Chad, health emergencies affect nearly 2 million people. The most vulnerable among them are children under 5 years of age, pregnant and breastfeeding women, people with disabilities and the elderly. The most recurrent health emergencies are malaria and epidemics such as measles, COVID-19, cholera, leishmaniasis, chikungunya, meningitis, polio and influenza.

Heavy rains in 2021 affected more than 256,000 people and caused flooding that destroyed homes, basic social infrastructure and the livelihoods of many farmers and herders in southern provinces (Tandjile, Moyen Chari, Mandoul, and Logone Oriental) and in the northern part of the country (Borkou and Ennedi-Ouest).

Women and girls are particularly vulnerable to these crises because of harmful social norms and cultural practices that contribute to limiting their access to basic social services (health, education, protection, household economy) and to increasing risks of gender-based violence (GBV).

The humanitarian situation in Chad remains marked by severe and growing needs in a context of underfunding. As of late October, only 22 per cent of the funds required in 2021 had been mobilized. However, despite the lack of resources, humanitarian partners, in coordination with the Government, have managed to provide emergency assistance to 2 million people (out of a target of 4 million) with food, nutritional supplies, shelter, protection, health care, education and WASH. Increased funding would reduce the vulnerability of crisis-affected people and promote anticipatory actions to make them more resilient to shocks.

Projection of the situation in 2022 and beyond

Chad will continue to be affected by four major interconnected crises: population movements, food insecurity and malnutrition, health emergencies and the consequences of climate change.

The security context will continue to be affected by the political landscape and dynamics surrounding the organization of elections after the transition period and the security situation in neighboring countries, including the presence of various rebels groups. The presence of non-state armed groups (NSAGs) in the Lake Chad basin and the military operations against these groups are likely to perpetuate the current displacement situation and trigger new displacements in Lac as well as new influxes of refugees from Nigeria.

Nearly 1 million people will be at risk of protection, some 344,000 of whom are anticipated to require protection from GBV. The active presence of NSAGs in northern CAR will slow down the potential return of Central African refugees from southern Chad and could result in new arrivals of Central African refugees and Chadian returnees during the year. In addition, security instability in Libya will result in new waves of returnees to northern Chad. However, political developments in Sudan could lead to a gradual return of Sudanese refugees from eastern Chad. Intercommunal conflicts, particularly conflicts between farmers and herders, remain important factors of insecurity that could lead to loss of life and property in the east and south of the country. The consequences of climate change, particularly droughts and floods, will affect agroforestry production, with negative impacts on food security and malnutrition. Access to basic social services, especially health related services, are particularly needed due to the persistence of epidemics (such as cholera, measles, leishmaniasis, meningitis and malaria) and education, will remain difficult because of the lack of adequate health care, as well as the inadequacy of school infrastructure and the lack of qualified teachers. The persistence of COVID-19 could further affect the living conditions of the most vulnerable people.

Response priorities in 2022

In 2022, the humanitarian response will continue to be guided by the 2017 - 2022 multi-year strategic framework and its objectives: to save and preserve life and dignity through integrated and coordinated multisectoral emergency assistance; to reduce vulnerability by building resilience and resistance to recurrent shocks; and to contribute to the protection of the most vulnerable populations, particularly children, girls and women, and to strengthen accountability to affected populations.

The response will promote an integrated multisectoral approach through defined multisectoral strategies (WASH in nutrition, WASH in school, WASH in health), including for refugees, and will strengthen the complementarity between humanitarian, development and peace action to contribute to the achievement of collective results. This approach will also devote particular attention to the centrality of protection and the fight against GBV. In this context, strengthening the Government's leadership and the search for durable solutions for people in movements situations (IDPs, returnees and refugees) will be a priority.

Planning will be based on, among other things, the specific vulnerabilities of women, girls, boys, children and people with disabilities. It will integrate protection concerns and address the humanitarian impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. The centrality of protection, gender and accountability to affected populations will be reinforced through community-based approaches and disaggregation of data to prevent protection risks and ensure basic human rights, taking into account the situation of people with specific needs. Emergency preparedness, response and risk reduction measures remain vitally important to mitigate the humanitarian consequences of climate change. The use of cash transfer modalities, based on a feasibility and market accessibility study, will be further strengthened. Measures to prevent the sexual abuse and exploitation of aid beneficiaries will be strengthened through sensitizing humanitarian staff and beneficiaries as well as implementing monitoring and complaint management tools.

The humanitarian community estimates that in 2022, 5.5 million people will need humanitarian assistance out of Chad’s population of 16.8 million. This figure is calculated based on the projection of people affected by food insecurity (IPC phase 2 and phase 3 and plus of the Cadre harmonisé) as well as updated data on people in displacement situations.

The humanitarian response will target 3.5 million people with an estimated funding requirement of approximately US$500 million. This funding requirement is less than that of the HRP 2021 ($617.5 million) and 2020 ($545.3 million), as the 2022 HRP seeks to complement other planning frameworks, such as the National Development Plan and stabilization programmes under peace building funds.¹